Assessment of Current Ice Conditions Relevant to Distribution and Access of Walrus
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Synopsis:A large low-pressure system spins over the Bering Sea throughout the forecast period. Easterly to northeasterly winds prevail through the forecast period with a period of strong northeast winds expected on Sunday through Monday evening. These stronger winds will be focused near St. Lawrence Island, Wales, and Diomede, with a frontal system bringing rain showers Sunday night and Monday mainly over St. Lawrence Island. Winds begin to calm with possible scattered rain showers throughout the week for the general Norton Sound and Bering Strait areas.
Near St. Lawrence Island
Shorefast ice extends 1 mile (1.5 km) offshore of Gambell and Savoonga, and up to 5 miles (7.5 km) offshore between the two. Between Ataakas Camp and Camp Kulowiyi, shorefast ice extends up to 6 miles (12 km) offshore. Ice beyond the shorefast ice north of the island is very close to consolidated pack ice mostly consisting of small to big floes, with some isolated vast floes up to 30 miles (50 km) offshore.
East of the island, open pack ice consisting of medium to big floes extends up to 17 mi (27 km) beyond the shorefast ice, then very close pack ice consisting of big to vast floes extends up to 75 miles (120 km) east of the open pack ice. West of the island is a band of close pack ice consisting of small to medium floes extending up to 25 mi (40 km) offshore of Gambell, then very open water extends west of the close pack ice. To the south of the island is open water consisting of small floes and ice cakes extending 30 mi (50 km) to the south, then generally sea ice free conditions.
Nome
Shorefast ice along the Nome coastline extends up to 1.5 mi (2.4 km) from the shoreline, though there is no shorefast ice directly in front of Nome. An area of open water extends up to 3 miles (5 km) south of Nome, and expands east of Nome to nearly 40 miles (64 km) offshore. South of the open water is close to very close pack ice consisting of medium to big floes that extends up to 15 miles (24 km), then close to very close pack ice consisting of small to medium floes extending another 10 to 15 miles (16 to 24 km) south. There is an area of consolidated ice in the southern half or so of Norton Sound that consists of big to giant floes.
Brevig Mission/Port Clarence Area
Shorefast ice extends up to 15 miles (16 km) southwest of Brevig Mission, then consolidated ice consisting of big to giant floes extends another 5 to 10 miles (8 to 16 km) beyond the shorefast ice. Open water then extends up to 40 miles (64 km) west. There are widely scattered small to medium floes within the open water area.
Wales to Shishmaref
Shorefast ice extends .5 miles (1 km) from Wales to 20 miles (35 km) offshore Ikpek. Shorefast offshore Shishmaref is 16 miles (25 km). Beyond the shorefast ice east of Wales is very close to consolidated pack ice consisting of medium to vast floes. West of Wales and north into the Chukchi Sea, close pack ice with medium to big floes extends up to 30 miles (50 km west).
Diomede
Shorefast ice extends between the islands. To the north of the islands is close to very close pack ice consisting of small to vast floes. From 15 to 20 miles (24 to 32 km) east of Diomede is open pack ice consisting of brash ice and small cakes. Open water exists beyond 20 miles (32 km) east of Diomede. To the south of Diomede is very open to open pack ice with small to medium floes.
Forecast Discussion
Ice Forecast
Sea ice will generally continue to drift southwest roughly 5-10 miles/day through Sunday (May 11). As winds become more easterly especially across the Norton Sound and St. Lawrence Island area Monday through Thursday, sea ice will drift westward 10 to 15 miles/day. Sea ice within the northern Bering Sea will continue to gradually melt through the week.
Wind Synopsis
St. Lawrence Island/Wales/Diomede:
Northeast winds prevail over the St. Lawrence Island/Wales/Diomede areas, occasionally fluctuating slightly between easterly and northeasterly winds. The strongest winds are expected to occur over the western portions of St. Lawrence Island early Saturday morning, and will continue to strengthen until Tuesday morning and have the potential to reach 20 to 25 mph (17 to 22 kts) to sustained winds with 30 to 35 mph (26 to 30 kts) wind gusts. At Wales and Diomede, sustained winds gradually increase during this timeframe as well, and can reach 15 to 20 mph (13 to 17 kts) sustained wind speeds accompanied by 25 to 30 mph (22 to 26 kts) gusts. After the winds reach their peak on Tuesday morning, winds gradually settle down to around 15 mph (13 kts) sustained and 20 mph (17 kts) gusts by the end of the week. Winds remain northerly/northeasterly.
Shishmaref area:
In the Shishmaref area, an easterly flow prevails until around Friday morning with relatively calm winds around 5 mph (4 kts). Winds then shift to a northerly direction into the weekend, and begin to pick up early Sunday, reaching around 15 mph (13 kts) with around 20 mph (17 kts) gusts. Beginning late Monday/early Tuesday, winds drop off and return to an easterly/northeasterly flow for the remainder of the week.
Nome/Brevig Mission area:
For Nome and Brevig Mission, winds remain primarily easterly until late Friday and early Saturday. Speeds fluctuate between 5 and 10 mph (4 to 8 kts), with gusts potentially reaching 20 mph (17 kts). Winds gradually weaken throughout the week and mostly retain their easterly/northeasterly flow.
Temperature Trend
For the St. Lawrence Island/Wales/Diomede areas, maximum temperatures will tend to reside in the low 30s. The warmest day within the next week will most likely be Friday, as it’s possible to see high temperatures in the upper 30s. Shishmaref and Brevig Mission are expected to see a slight warming trend towards the end of the week where high temperatures could reach 40 degrees. Nome has the warmest temperature outlook with a four to five day stretch of highs in the mid 40s and the potential for reaching 50 degrees towards the week’s end.
Daily Weather, Wind, and Temperature Updates
The National Weather Service provides twice-daily, text only updates on the weather, wind, and temperature conditions in specific geographical zones. An interactive weather map for access to other Alaskan zones can be found here: http://weather.gov/anchorage/ice
Higher resolution satellite images and wind maps (wind updated daily) can be viewed here: http://www.weather.gov/afg/SIWO_overview
The Alaska Ocean Observing System shares a variety of weather and sea ice related resources in their Bering Sea Portal at https://bering-sea.portal.aoos.org/.
NWS Sea Ice Forecast Maps
Marine forecast for the West Coast and Arctic Coast
Remote Sensing Images
Observations & Comments
Observations of Sea Ice Development
Observations from Gambell
Friday, 9 May 2025 – Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.
Shore ice went out yesterday. Three days ago boats got walrus. today 31°, windy and flurries E15 mph.
Sea ice and weather conditions in Gambell. Photos courtesy of Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.
Friday, 9 May 2025 – John Kulowiyi
Walrus seen 12 miles southwest of Gambell.
Sea ice and walrus photos courtesy of John Kulowiyi.
Observations from Savoonga
Thursday, 8 May 2025 – Aqef Waghiyi
Temp 44.3°F, wind speed 23 knots northeast, barometer 29.88, dew point 53.5, humidity 90.8. Just ice fishing this week.
Sea ice and weather conditions in Savoonga. Photos courtesy of Aqef Waghiyi.
Observations from Brevig Mission / Port Clarence
Friday, 9 May 2025 – Marcus Barr
Shorefast ice broke off near Cape Douglas. Shorefast ice near Port Clarence is starting to break off also. Couple hunters tried headed out for bearded seal but was unsuccessful due to Shorefast ice breaking off.
Observations from Shishmaref
Friday, 9 May 2025 – Christopher Ningeulook
No visible open water yet northern winds throughout the weekend making for a cool weekend with temperatures hovering around 28 degrees middays. A “pond” of open water seen circled in red via satellite imagery about 24 miles east of Shishmaref.
Picture credit to Alexander Weyiouanna from this morning in Shishmaref, AK. A polar bear was spotted about a mile out from our dump site.
Photos and imagery courtesy of Christopher Ningeulook, Shishmaref, AK.
Observations from Wales
Saturday, 10 May 2025 – Robert Tokeinna, Jr.
30 degrees and breezy northeast winds at 28 gusting 35 mph. Some of our shorefast ice broke off and drifted out. Water is starting to overflow our creek. There are sea gulls, cranes, and snow birds around which are signs of spring.
Photos and imagery courtesy of Robert Tokeinna, Jr., Wales, AK.
Observations from Hooper Bay
Saturday, 10 May 2025 – Darrell Walker
Good evening. Sea ice information. 26 miles west of Hooper Bay. 05/10/2025 hunting trip.
Photos and imagery courtesy of Darrell Walker, Hooper Bay, AK.
Shared by the Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS) for 7–14 May 2025
The images below show animations of the movement of ice predicted by the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Snapshots from the forecast show ice coverage from 0% (black) to 100% (white) and arrows show the relative speed and direction of the ice. A light boundary is drawn at 15% predicted ice cover to highlight the ice edge, but ice may be predicted to extend beyond it. Some bays, lagoons, and areas very close to shore are not covered by the model. (Image produced by the Alaska Ocean Observing System / Axiom Data Science).
These animations show the predicted movement of ice predicted by the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Snapshots from the forecast show ice coverage from 0% (black) to 100% (white) and arrows show the relative speed and direction of the ice. A light boundary is drawn at 15% predicted ice cover to highlight the ice edge, but ice may be predicted to extend beyond it. Some bays, lagoons, and areas very close to shore are not covered by the model. (Image produced by the Alaska Ocean Observing System / Axiom Data Science)