Assessment of Current Ice Conditions Relevant to Distribution and Access of Walrus
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Synopsis: Generally northerly winds with cloudy conditions and some areas of snow showers are expected over the eastern Bering Sea on Friday (May 23). Winds will briefly become variable on Saturday morning as a low-pressure area moves through before returning to northerly by Saturday night. Clearer skies and drier conditions are expected from Saturday evening through Sunday, with perhaps an isolated shower over St. Lawrence Island on Sunday. Winds will become more westerly to northwesterly by Monday afternoon, with lighter and more variable winds across the eastern Bering Sea by Tuesday morning. By Tuesday evening, southwesterly flow will predominate, with scattered clouds but continuing dry weather. Wednesday will see more varied winds depending on the track of a possible low-pressure system in the eastern Bering Sea, with the highest winds likely from western St. Lawrence Island to Wales/Diomede. On Thursday and Friday, the low-pressure system will bring additional clouds and precipitation chances, with locally higher north winds on St. Lawrence Island and at Wales/Diomede. Little in the way of significant temperature changes are expected during this entire time frame.
Near St. Lawrence Island
Shorefast ice extends 0.5 mile (1 km) offshore of Gambell and Savoonga, and up to 5 miles (8 km) offshore between the two. Between Ataakas Camp and Camp Kulowiyi, shorefast ice extends up to 6 miles (12 km) offshore. Ice beyond the shorefast ice north of the island is very close to consolidated pack ice mostly consisting of small to big floes, with some isolated vast floes up to 30 miles (50 km) offshore.
East of the island, close pack ice consisting of medium to big floes extends up to 40 miles (64 km) to 50 miles (80 km) beyond the shorefast ice, then close pack ice consisting of big to vast floes extends up to 16 miles (26 km) east of the close pack ice. South and west of the island is open water aside from a band of strips of ice breaking off the icepack on the north side of the island. Those strips are drifting to the southwest of the island while gradually melting.
Nome
Open water to sea ice free conditions generally exist along the Nome coastline and extends to the west, south, and east of Nome. There is an area of close pack ice approximately 10 miles (16 km) south of Nome that extends southward.
Brevig Mission/Port Clarence Area
Shorefast ice extends up to 14 miles (22 km) west-southwest of Brevig Mission, then waters are generally open beyond that. There is one area of consolidated ice along the outer edge of the shorefast ice that is showing several small pieces of the shorefast ice have broken off and drifted southward.
Wales to Shishmaref
Shorefast ice extends 0.5 miles (1 km) from Wales to 18 miles (29 km) offshore Ikpek. Shorefast offshore Shishmaref extends 14 miles (23 km). Beyond the shorefast ice west and northwest of Wales is open water to very open pack ice consisting of small to vast floes extending 25 miles (40 km) north and 30 miles (48 km) west.
Diomede
Shorefast ice extends between the islands. To the north of the shorefast ice is very close pack ice extending up to 2 miles (3 km) from the shorefast ice. Much of the remainder of the waters near Diomede contain open water to open pack ice with medium to big floes.
Forecast Discussion
Ice Forecast
Sea ice will generally continue to drift south through Saturday (May 24). Sea ice across the Bering Sea will continue to decay as areas of ice-free waters expand. There will likely be an area of open water from the warmer current through the eastern Bering Strait near Wales. Shorefast ice will continue to break apart.
Wind Synopsis
St. Lawrence Island/Wales/Diomede:
Winds over the St. Lawrence Island–Wales/Diomede areas on Friday (May 23) will blow from the north through Friday night before briefly becoming light and variable as a low-pressure system moves through the area. Winds will become northerly again at 12 to 17 mph (10 to 15 kt) by Saturday afternoon and increase to about 17 to 23 mph (15 to 20 kt) from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Winds become generally westerly to southwesterly at 12 to 17 mph (10 to 15 kt) from Monday afternoon through Wednesday night. There is high uncertainty, but a low-pressure area moving into the eastern Bering Sea could lead to generally northerly winds at 12 to 23 mph (10 to 20 kt) through Thursday night, with a switch to northerly winds at 17 to 23 mph (15 to 20 kt) possible on Friday (May 30) with another low-pressure system.
Shishmaref area:
From Friday (May 23) through Saturday morning, winds will blow lightly from the west to northwest. They will turn to the north to northeast at 6 to 12 mph (5 to 10 kt) from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning after a low-pressure area to the southwest moves through. They will then gradually switch to the west through Tuesday morning and blow at 6 to 12 mph (5 to 10 kt) through Wednesday morning. From Wednesday afternoon through Friday (May 30), winds could be variable depending on weather systems in the Bering Sea, with north to northwest winds at 6 to 12 mph (5 to 10 kt) most likely.
Nome/Brevig Mission area:
Winds for the Nome and Brevig Mission areas will initially blow at 6 to 12 mph (5 to 10 kt) from the south on Friday morning (May 23). They will shift to blowing from the west to northwest at the same strength from Friday afternoon (May 23) through Saturday morning. After a low-pressure area passes nearby, the winds will turn to the north and blow at 6 to 12 mph (5 to 10 kt) at Nome and 12 to 17 mph (10 to 15 kt) at Brevig Mission from Saturday afternoon through Monday morning after a low-pressure area passes by. Winds will shift to blow from the north to northwest at 12 to 17 mph (10 to 15 kt) from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, with periods of light and variable winds interspersed, with another wind shift to the west likely by Wednesday morning. There is high uncertainty in wind directions thereafter due to various weather systems in the Bering and track uncertainties, but winds will likely tend to blow at around 6 to 12 mph (5 to 10 kt) through Friday (May 30).
Temperature Trend
At St. Lawrence Island and Wales/Diomede, highs will tend to rise into the lower-to-mid 30s, while lows will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Shishmaref will see highs rise into the lower 30s on Friday (May 23) and Saturday and the upper 30s from Sunday onward, while lows will generally fall into the lower-to-mid 20s. At Nome, highs will rise into the upper 40s on Friday (May 23) and Saturday, the lower-to-mid 50s from Sunday through Tuesday, and the upper 40s from Wednesday through Friday (May 30). Lows at Nome will tend to drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s each day. Brevig Mission will be a few degrees cooler than Nome but follow a similar temperature trend, with highs rising into the upper 40s on most days, with lower 50s possible from Sunday through Tuesday. Lows will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Daily Weather, Wind, and Temperature Updates
The National Weather Service provides twice-daily, text only updates on the weather, wind, and temperature conditions in specific geographical zones. An interactive weather map for access to other Alaskan zones can be found here: http://weather.gov/anchorage/ice
Higher resolution satellite images and wind maps (wind updated daily) can be viewed here: http://www.weather.gov/afg/SIWO_overview
The Alaska Ocean Observing System shares a variety of weather and sea ice related resources in their Bering Sea Portal at https://bering-sea.portal.aoos.org/.
NWS Sea Ice Forecast Maps
Marine forecast for the West Coast and Arctic Coast
Remote Sensing Images
Observations & Comments
Observations of Sea Ice Development
Observations from Gambell
Friday, 23 May 2025 – Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.
NNE 38 miles out, mostly bull walrus on ice.
Sea ice, weather, and game near Gambell. Photos courtesy of Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.
Observations from Savoonga
Friday, 23 May 2025 – Aqef Waghiyi
Temp 36°, wind 8 knots north, dew point 32.8, barometer 30.11. No open water, still locked in.
Observations from Brevig Mission / Port Clarence
Friday, 23 May 2025 – Marcus Barr
Just about all shorefast ice broke off from Port Clarence and on south, couple hunter got walrus last week. Nobody else has gone out since strong northerly winds hit us for about a week. Large piece of ice broke free just west of Port Clarence.
Observations from Shishmaref
Friday, 23 May 2025 – Christopher Ningeulook
No change in the ice conditions since last week, north winds have been steady and will continue throughout the weekend. Temperatures averaging 30* with light north winds.
Some hunters continue to ride out to the ice edge to wait for Oogruks as Shishmaref patiently wait for breakup.
Observations from Wales
Friday, 23 May 2025 – Robert Tokeinna, Jr.
Some good aerial photos today from the plane. Today in Wales, it was overcast; but it was clearer to the south. Sea ice visible in front of Nome and Ft Davis and 20 or so miles south from Wales and about 15 miles southwest of Tin City. There was some broken ice near Lost river but not much. As you can see, soon as the ice comes off the shore it crumbles. This seems to be a trend this year. It was calm winds out of the northeast at about 15mph and 30°F, overcast skies in Wales.
Photos courtesy of Robert Tokeinna, Jr.
Observations from Diomede
Sunday, 25 May 2025 – Odge Ahkinga
I’m in Diomede and started hunting yesterday got one uugruq so far and the sea ice between still stuck. I forgot to bring my cell yesterday. Heard walruses they were too far in the ice. Photos are three miles east of Diomede.
Photos courtesy of Odge Ahkinga.
Shared by the Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS) for 20–28 May 2025
The images below show animations of the movement of ice predicted by the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Snapshots from the forecast show ice coverage from 0% (black) to 100% (white) and arrows show the relative speed and direction of the ice. A light boundary is drawn at 15% predicted ice cover to highlight the ice edge, but ice may be predicted to extend beyond it. Some bays, lagoons, and areas very close to shore are not covered by the model. (Image produced by the Alaska Ocean Observing System / Axiom Data Science).
These animations show the predicted movement of ice predicted by the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Snapshots from the forecast show ice coverage from 0% (black) to 100% (white) and arrows show the relative speed and direction of the ice. A light boundary is drawn at 15% predicted ice cover to highlight the ice edge, but ice may be predicted to extend beyond it. Some bays, lagoons, and areas very close to shore are not covered by the model. (Image produced by the Alaska Ocean Observing System / Axiom Data Science)