Assessment of Current Ice Conditions Relevant to Distribution and Access of Walrus
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Synopsis: Weak northerly flow persists over the region with north winds and a few flurries. A front over the Interior will move west and bring scattered snow showers to the Norton Sound Region on Saturday and west to St. Lawrence Island on Sunday. Most of the area dries out by Monday and remains dry for much of next week until a few snow showers return on Wednesday and Thursday in the Bering Strait. There may be a Bering Sea low which tries to intrude at the end of the next week, but there is some uncertainty.
Near St. Lawrence Island
Shorefast ice extends 1 mile (1.5 km) offshore of Gambell and Savoonga, and up to 5 miles (7.5 km) offshore between the two. Between Ataakas Camp and Camp Kulowiyi, shorefast ice extends up to 6 miles (12 km) offshore. Ice beyond the shorefast ice north of the island is very close to consolidated pack ice mostly consisting of small to big floes, with some isolated vast floes. East of the island, open pack ice consisting of medium to big floes extends up to 24 mi (38 km) beyond the shorefast ice, then very close pack ice consisting of big to vast floes extends east of the open pack ice. West of the island is a band of close pack ice consisting of small to medium floes extending up to 10 mi (16 km) offshore, then very open pack ice extends west of the close pack ice. To the south of the island is open water consisting of small to big floes extending 155 mi (250 km) to the south.
Nome
Shorefast ice along the Nome coastline extends up to 1.5 mi (2.4 km) from the shoreline, though there is no shorefast ice directly in front of Nome. A polynya extends up to 3 mi (5 km) beyond the shorefast ice, though east of Solomon the polynya extends up to 75 km. The remainder of the ice pack in the Nome region is close to very close pack ice consisting of medium to vast floes with isolated giant floes.
Brevig Mission/Port Clarence Area
This area has not begun yet for the 2025 season.
Wales to Shishmaref
Shorefast ice extends .5 miles (1 km) from Wales to 20 miles (35 km) offshore Ikpek. Shorefast offshore Shishmaref is 16 miles (25 km). Beyond the shorefast ice east of Wales is very close to consolidated pack ice consisting of medium to vast floes. West of Wales and north into the Chukchi Sea, the pack is very open to open also with medium to big floes.
Diomede
Shorefast ice extends between the islands. To the north of the islands is close to very close pack ice consisting of small to vast floes. Open water exists 10 miles (16 km) to 20 mi (32 km) east of Diomede. To the south of Diomede is very open to open pack ice with small to medium floes.
Forecast Discussion
Ice Forecast
Sea ice will generally continue to drift southeast roughly 5-10 nm/day through Saturday (May 3). Sea ice north of the Seward Peninsula will begin drifting southwest overall Sunday (May 4) through Monday (May 5) before drifting south to southeast again Tuesday (May 6) through Thursday (May 8). As polynyas continue to expand, new ice will continue struggling to grow or will melt during the day.
For St. Lawrence Island, northerly winds will keep ice compacted against the northern shorefast ice, flowing around the east side of the island, while lower concentration ice streams by Gambell. The polynya south of the island will remain open.
Wind Synopsis
St. Lawrence Island/Wales/Diomede:
Northerly winds persist for the entire region through the majority of the forecast period with little direction change.
Strongest sustained winds 15-25 mph (13-22 kt) and gusts up to 35 mph (30 kt) will persist in the Bering Strait Region through Saturday night and weaken slightly on Sunday to 10-15 mph (9-13 kt). Northerly winds begin to increase Sunday night around Gambell and Diomede and spread to Wales by early Monday morning at 20 to 30 mph (17-26 kt) with gusts to 40 mph (35 kt) and will continue through Tuesday morning before weakening gradually Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning to 10 to 20 mph (9-17 kt) and gusts to 25 mph (20 kt).
**Heading into Thursday, there is uncertainty with the winds, they appear to continue to weaken but shift easterly. There is a chance that a Bering Sea low approaches late next week, but the ongoing pattern would keep the bulk of the system south. It will be monitored.
Shishmaref area:
Light northerly winds around 5-15 mph (4-13 kt) continue through Saturday then go nearly calm Saturday night into Sunday. Winds then shift east Sunday afternoon at 5-10 mph (4-9 kt) and persist through Sunday night before turning northerly again early Monday morning. Northerly winds strengthen Monday afternoon to 10-20 mph (9 to 17 kt) with gusts to 25 mph (20 kt). These stronger winds persist through Tuesday afternoon then weaken gradually Tuesday night through Wednesday morning before becoming nearly calm again Wednesday afternoon.
Nome area:
Northerly winds around 10-15 mph (9-13 kt) continue through Saturday morning then go nearly calm Saturday afternoon in Norton Sound. Winds then shift east on Sunday but stay very light at 5 mph or less (4 kt or less) until Sunday afternoon when they strengthen to 5-15 mph (4-13 kt). Northerly winds strengthen Monday afternoon to 10-20 mph (9 to 17 kt) with gusts to 25 mph (20 kt). These stronger winds persist through Tuesday morning then weaken Tuesday afternoon to 5-10 mph (4-9 kt). These winds persist through Wednesday afternoon with a westward shift in wind direction before calming down on Thursday.
Temperature Trend
High temperatures from Shishmaref through the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island will be in the upper 20s to low 30s through the forecast period. High temperatures in the southern Seward Peninsula/Nome/Norton Sound area will be in the upper 30s to low 40s through the forecast period.
Low temperatures will be in the teens to near 20 degrees from Shishmaref through the Bering Strait to St. Lawrence Island through the forecast period. Low temperatures in the southern Seward Peninsula/Nome/Norton Sound area will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Daily Weather, Wind, and Temperature Updates
The National Weather Service provides twice-daily, text only updates on the weather, wind, and temperature conditions in specific geographical zones. An interactive weather map for access to other Alaskan zones can be found here: http://weather.gov/anchorage/ice
Higher resolution satellite images and wind maps (wind updated daily) can be viewed here: http://www.weather.gov/afg/SIWO_overview
The Alaska Ocean Observing System shares a variety of weather and sea ice related resources in their Bering Sea Portal at https://bering-sea.portal.aoos.org/.
NWS Sea Ice Forecast Maps
Marine forecast for the West Coast and Arctic Coast
Remote Sensing Images
Observations & Comments
Observations of Sea Ice Development
Observations from Gambell
Friday, 2 May 2025 – Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.
20°, windy N 16 mph. Very windy all week.
Sea ice and weather conditions in Gambell. Photos courtesy of Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.
Observations from Savoonga
Friday, 2 May 2025 – Aqef Waghiyi
Temp 36°F, wind speed 3.6 knots, baro 29.71 / pressure 29.71, dew point 17.7, humidity 78.8.
Sea ice and weather conditions in Savoonga. Photos courtesy of Aqef Waghiyi.
Observations from Brevig Mission / Port Clarence
Friday, 2 May 2025 – Marcus Barr
First report for Brevig Mission
Current ice conditions about 23 miles south, open off the beach below Port Clarence about a mile from the shore. A few hunters brought their boats.
Sea ice and weather conditions in Brevig Mission. Photos courtesy of Marcus Barr.
Shared by the Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS) for 29 April – 7 May 2025
The images below show animations of the movement of ice predicted by the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Snapshots from the forecast show ice coverage from 0% (black) to 100% (white) and arrows show the relative speed and direction of the ice. A light boundary is drawn at 15% predicted ice cover to highlight the ice edge, but ice may be predicted to extend beyond it. Some bays, lagoons, and areas very close to shore are not covered by the model. (Image produced by the Alaska Ocean Observing System / Axiom Data Science).
These animations show the predicted movement of ice predicted by the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Snapshots from the forecast show ice coverage from 0% (black) to 100% (white) and arrows show the relative speed and direction of the ice. A light boundary is drawn at 15% predicted ice cover to highlight the ice edge, but ice may be predicted to extend beyond it. Some bays, lagoons, and areas very close to shore are not covered by the model. (Image produced by the Alaska Ocean Observing System / Axiom Data Science)