Assessment of Current Ice Conditions Relevant to Distribution and Access of Walrus
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Synopsis: Mostly dry conditions with northerly flow across most of the Bering Sea are expected to last through most of the forecast time frame, with little in the way of notable temperature changes expected. No significant weather is anticipated over the next several days, but near the end of next week (the week of Friday, May 23), there is some indication that a low may move into the Bering Sea, although the location of this low, if it enters the Bering, is very low confidence. If the low enters the Bering Sea, there is a chance for increased south to southeast winds over St. Lawrence Island and the western Seward Peninsula.
Near St. Lawrence Island
Shorefast ice extends 0.5 mile (1 km) offshore of Gambell and Savoonga, and up to 5 miles (8 km) offshore between the two. Between Ataakas Camp and Camp Kulowiyi, shorefast ice extends up to 6 miles (12 km) offshore. Ice beyond the shorefast ice north of the island is very close to consolidated pack ice mostly consisting of small to big floes, with some isolated vast floes up to 30 miles (50 km) to 50 miles (80 km) offshore.
East of the island, close pack ice consisting of medium to big floes extends up to 5 miles (8 km) to 10 miles (16 km) beyond the shorefast ice, then open pack ice consisting of big to vast floes extends up to 20 miles (32 km) east of the close pack ice. West of the island is a band of close pack ice consisting of small to medium floes extending up to 5 miles (8 km) offshore west of Gambell, then open water extends west off the close pack ice. To the south of the island is open water consisting of small floes and ice cakes beginning 15 miles (24 km) south of Siknik Training Camp and extending to the south. Generally, sea ice free conditions extend off of the southwest portion of the island.
Nome
Open water exists along the Nome coastline and extends up to 15 miles (24 km) to the southwest and 25 miles (40 km) to the south of Nome. Southwest of the open water is close pack ice consisting of medium to vast floes. Due south of the open water is very close pack ice consisting of medium to big floes. Ice-free waters begin about 20 miles (32 km) southeast of Nome.
Brevig Mission/Port Clarence Area
Shorefast ice extends up to 15 miles (16 km) southwest of Brevig Mission, then consolidated ice consisting of big to giant floes extends another 5 miles (8 km) beyond the shorefast ice. Open water exists about 6 miles (10 km) beyond the shorefast ice with widely scattered small to medium floes within the open water area. Beyond the open water is close pack ice consisting of medium to vast floes.
Wales to Shishmaref
Shorefast ice extends 0.5 miles (1 km) from Wales to 18 miles (29 km) offshore Ikpek. Shorefast offshore Shishmaref extends 14 miles (23 km). Beyond the shorefast ice west and northwest of Wales is open water to very open pack ice consisting of small to big floes extending 6 miles (10 km) to 12 miles (19 km) to the northwest.
Diomede
Shorefast ice extends between the islands. To the north, very close pack ice consisting of small to medium floes extends 1.5 miles (2.4 km) from the shorefast ice. Surrounding the islands is very open pack ice consisting of small to vast floes. Open water exists beyond 8 miles (13 km) east and 13 miles (21 km) west of Diomede.
Forecast Discussion
Ice Forecast
Sea ice will generally continue to drift south roughly 5-10 miles/day through Saturday (May 17). By Sunday (May 18), winds increase and sea ice will drift south/southeast roughly 10-15 miles/day. Sea ice across the Bering Sea will continue to gradually melt through the weekend.
Wind Synopsis
St. Lawrence Island/Wales/Diomede:
Winds over the St. Lawrence Island–Wales/Diomede areas on Friday (May 16) will blow from the north at about 12 to 17 mph (10 to 15 kt) before weakening and shifting to the northwest-to-west during the afternoon and overnight hours. By Saturday afternoon, Wales/Diomede can expect northwest winds at about 12 to 17 mph (10 to 15 kt) while winds at St. Lawrence Island will remain light from the west. From Sunday through Wednesday, north to northwest winds will blow at 17 to 29 mph (15 to 25 kt) at Wales/Diomede and 17 to 23 mph (15 to 20 kt) at St. Lawrence Island. Thereafter (from Thursday onward), winds will potentially weaken, but there is very high uncertainty. There is a chance that a low moves into the Bering Sea from the southwest, which could lead to winds picking up into the 17 to 29 mph (15 to 25 kt) range from the southeast over St. Lawrence Island by Thursday afternoon and lasting into Friday (May 23).
Shishmaref area:
Winds at Shishmaref will generally blow from the east at around 6 to 12 mph (5 to 10 kt) from Friday (May 15) through Saturday morning before shifting to the west-to-northwest by Saturday afternoon. From Saturday afternoon through Wednesday morning, winds will blow from the north-to-northwest at around 12 to 17 mph (10 to 15 kt), with winds weakening to under 12 mph (10 kt) and turning to the west from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Depending on the trajectory of a potential low-pressure system moving into the Bering Sea, winds could increase up to 12 to 23 mph (10 to 20 kt) from the south to southwest by Friday afternoon (May 23).
Nome/Brevig Mission area:
Winds in the Nome/Brevig Mission area will initially blow from the north at about 12 to 17 mph (10 to 15 kt) on Friday morning (May 16). In the afternoon, they will become light and variable but tend to blow more from the west to northwest at Nome and the north at Brevig Mission. Winds will remain weak at Nome but strengthen to 14 to 21 mph (12 to 18 kt) at Brevig Mission from Saturday night through Monday night before weakening to about 12 mph (10 kt). Winds will remain generally northerly at Brevig Mission around 12 mph (10 kt) and around 6 to 12 mph (5 to 10 kt) from the west at Nome through Friday morning. By Friday afternoon (May 23), there is a slight chance for winds to increase to 23 to 35 mph (20 to 30 kt) from the south at Brevig Mission and Nome ahead of another system which may enter the Bering.
Temperature Trend
At St. Lawrence Island and Wales/Diomede, highs will tend to rise into the lower-to-mid 30s, with lows falling into the mid-to-upper 20s. Shishmaref will mostly see highs rise into the mid-to-upper 30s each day, with lows falling into the upper teens to mid 20s. At Nome, highs will generally rise into the mid-to-upper 40s, with lows falling into the 30s. Brevig Mission will be a few degrees cooler than Nome but follow a similar temperature trend, with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and lows in the upper 20s and 30s.
Daily Weather, Wind, and Temperature Updates
The National Weather Service provides twice-daily, text only updates on the weather, wind, and temperature conditions in specific geographical zones. An interactive weather map for access to other Alaskan zones can be found here: http://weather.gov/anchorage/ice
Higher resolution satellite images and wind maps (wind updated daily) can be viewed here: http://www.weather.gov/afg/SIWO_overview
The Alaska Ocean Observing System shares a variety of weather and sea ice related resources in their Bering Sea Portal at https://bering-sea.portal.aoos.org/.
NWS Sea Ice Forecast Maps
Marine forecast for the West Coast and Arctic Coast
Remote Sensing Images
Observations & Comments
Observations of Sea Ice Development
Observations from Gambell
Thursday, 15 May 2025 – Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.
Very windy, hardly no boats are going out since 3 days ago. 2 or 3 boats went that day and got walrus. 31° cloudy N 8mph.
Friday, 16 May 2025 – Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.
Just got in from boating, got some walrus SW of Gambell.
Sea ice, weather conditions, and game near Gambell. Photos courtesy of Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.
Observations from Savoonga
Friday, 16 May 2025 – Aqef Waghiyi
Observation from Savoonga coming soon.
Observations from Brevig Mission / Port Clarence
Friday, 16 May 2025 – Marcus Barr
All of Shorefast ice broke off south of Port Clarence. Another piece is breaking off. Lotta hunters brought boats down to ice edge and got seal. Hunters heading out today for walrus.
Sea ice and weather conditions in Brevig Mission and Port Clarence. Photos courtesy of Marcus Barr.
Observations from Shishmaref
Friday, 16 May 2025 – Christopher Ningeulook
Some hunters are taking advantage of warm temperatures and calm winds with clear skies this past week, driving out to the ice edge looking for good waiting spots for oogruks. This weekend’s forecast doesn’t look too great for much hunting, by land nor sea with a strong northern breeze coming by Saturday evening with stronger gusts due on Sunday. Temperatures looking to cool down as the north winds begin after a warm few days have come and gone this week. Fog and low visibility might be expected on Saturday and Sunday
Weather and sea ice conditions in Shishmaref. Photos courtesy of Christopher Ningeulook.
Aerial view of open water NW of Shishmaref. Photo credit to Jimmy Seetamona.
An open lead NE of Shishmaref where the first oogruk was successfully taken for the season. Photo courtesy of by Thomas Pootoogooluk.
Observations from Wales
Thursday, 15 May 2025 – Robert Tokeinna, Jr.
Some Great pictures between Wales and Port Clarence Bay. In Wales, the ice is breaking off via wave action. You can see the mixture in young ice and very young ice. You can see the color difference, lots of ice east of King Island to 20 or so miles outside of Wales. Most of the pack ice north of Wales is just lingering north of Wales near the coast. Lots of snow yet, white in land but rivers and creeks are opening up.
Photos courtesy of Robert Tokeinna, Jr., Wales, AK.
Shared by the Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS) for 13–21 May 2025
The images below show animations of the movement of ice predicted by the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Snapshots from the forecast show ice coverage from 0% (black) to 100% (white) and arrows show the relative speed and direction of the ice. A light boundary is drawn at 15% predicted ice cover to highlight the ice edge, but ice may be predicted to extend beyond it. Some bays, lagoons, and areas very close to shore are not covered by the model. (Image produced by the Alaska Ocean Observing System / Axiom Data Science).
These animations show the predicted movement of ice predicted by the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Snapshots from the forecast show ice coverage from 0% (black) to 100% (white) and arrows show the relative speed and direction of the ice. A light boundary is drawn at 15% predicted ice cover to highlight the ice edge, but ice may be predicted to extend beyond it. Some bays, lagoons, and areas very close to shore are not covered by the model. (Image produced by the Alaska Ocean Observing System / Axiom Data Science)