SIWO Forecast – Friday, May 15, 2026

Assessment of Current Ice Conditions Relevant to Distribution and Access of Walrus

Synopsis: Friday through Monday the general weather will be influenced by a storm system meandering around the southern and central Bering Sea. During this timeframe, winds will be on the increase as they shift to the northeast with the storm spinning to the south. There will also be a slight chance for a few scattered showers throughout the region during the Saturday to Monday timeframe.  Most precipitation should fall as rain, but some snow will be possible by early next week as cooler air filters down from the north. The next storm system to enter the picture will stay well south of the region. Therefore, the balance of the week (Tuesday through Friday) should stay mainly dry with cooler temps and somewhat lighter winds.

Near St. Lawrence Island

Open water continues to expand around much of the south side of the island. Very close to consolidated pack ice remains between Gambell and Savoonga. Consolidated to compact pack ice remains from Savoonga eastward around the east side of the island. Shorefast ice in this area remains intact, but it is likely to degrade and rot given existing and forecast high temperatures.

Nome

Shorefast ice along the Nome coast looks intact from satellite imagery. The only signs of degradation are along the outer edge of the shorefast, though recent local pictures from the area look like the ice is beginning to rot. Sea ice to the south is a mix of open to close pack ice, with an area of close to very close ice extending from Sledge Island southeastward into the middle of Norton Sound.

Brevig Mission/Port Clarence Area

This area has not yet begun for the 2026 season.

Wales to Shishmaref

An area of open water to very open pack ice exists to the north of Shishmaref, off the shorefast ice. Otherwise, very close to compact pack ice exists in the waters of the southern Chukchi Sea. The ice is a mix of first year medium and thick ice. Ice behind barrier islands within the lagoon are beginning to rot and seasonally melt. The shorefast ice between Wales and Shishmaref does not yet show the same signs of degradation, but the forecast temperatures suggest that this ice will begin to degrade within the next couple of weeks.

Diomede

This area has not yet begun for the 2026 season.

Forecast Discussion

Ice Forecast

St. Lawrence Island:

The predominant winds over the weekend will keep pack ice consolidated between Gambell through Savoonga. Shorefast ice between Savoonga and Camp Kulowiyi will likely remain intact, but overall expect ice to begin to degrade with temperatures remaining above freezing.  The northeasterly winds over the weekend may strip areas of open pack ice away from the main pack into the open water that currently exists north of Gambell. As winds lighten into the middle of next week expect tides and currents to be the driving force of ice movement again.

Wales to Shishmaref:

Expect little change in ice conditions over the next week as winds will likely not be strong enough to overcome the existing currents. With the warmer surface temperatures, expect the shorefast ice to begin to degrade at an accelerated rate though it likely will not break away and move over the next week.

Nome:

Expect little change in ice conditions over the next week as winds will likely not be strong enough to overcome the existing currents. With the warmer surface temperatures, expect the shorefast ice to begin to degrade at an accelerated rate though it likely will not break away and move over the next week.

Wind Synopsis

St. Lawrence Island:

Light winds from the northeast Friday will increase to between 25 and 30 mph (22–25 knots) with gusts to 40 mph (35 knots) at times Saturday through Monday. The windiest period should be Saturday and Sunday. After Monday, winds will slowly shift to more of an easterly direction and weaken a bit. Expect weekday winds to be between 10 to 20 mph (8–17 knots) with occasional gusts to 25 mph (21 knots).

Wales to Shish:

Light northeast winds Friday will increase over the weekend with speeds of 15 to 20 mph (12–17 knots) and gusts of 25 mph (22 knots). The winds will become more northerly (onshore) Monday before shifting to more of a northeasterly direction for the rest of the week. After Monday, wind speeds will also diminish with general speeds of 10 to 15 mph (9–13 knots) gusting at times to 20 mph (17 knots).

Temperature Trend

St. Lawrence Island:

Slightly warmer than normal temperatures are expected over the weekend with highs mainly in the upper 30’s to near 40 degrees and lows dropping just below the freezing mark with readings generally the upper 20’s to near 30. The week ahead will feature slightly cooler conditions as highs are expected to drop back into the middle to upper 30’s while lows remain basically unchanged in the upper 20’s to near 30.

Wales to Shish:

Seasonably mild temperatures are expected over the weekend with highs right around the 40-degree mark and lows dropping just below the freezing mark with readings generally the upper 20’s to near 30. Slightly cooler conditions will occur during the week ahead as highs are expected to drop back into the upper 30’s while lows remain basically unchanged in the upper 20’s to near 30.

Daily Weather, Wind, and Temperature Updates

The National Weather Service provides twice-daily, text only updates on the weather, wind, and temperature conditions in specific geographical zones. An interactive weather map for access to other Alaskan zones can be found here: http://weather.gov/anchorage/ice

Higher resolution satellite images and wind maps (wind updated daily) can be viewed here: http://www.weather.gov/afg/SIWO_overview

The Alaska Ocean Observing System shares a variety of weather and sea ice related resources in their Bering Sea Portal at https://bering-sea.portal.aoos.org/.

NWS Sea Ice Forecast Maps

Marine forecast for the West Coast and Arctic Coast

Remote Sensing Images

Observations & Comments

Observations of Local Conditions

Observations from Sivuqaq / Gambell

Icebergs and windy.

Thursday, 14 May 2026 – Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.

Boats are getting out this morning, could see herd of walrus from beach.

Friday, 15 May 2026 – Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.

Not too far from Gambell this morning, moving ice from the north this foggy weather. Get two walrus both male, 5 years and 10+ years male 7 miles out in fog.

Sunday, 17 May 2026 – Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.

32° winter weather advisory NE 25 gust 40 mph. Windy and rain.

Images from Gambell courtesy of Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.

Observations from Sivungaq / Savoonga

Sunday, 17 May 2026 – Aqef Waghiyi

North wind 15 gust 20 choppy. Lots of open water Eastside lots of ice.

Images from Savoonga courtesy of Aqef Waghiyi.

Observations from Kingigin / Wales

Observations from Kigiktaq / Shishmaref

Weather forecast information from the Windy app and satellite image captures courtesy of Christopher Ningeulook.

Observations from Sitnasuaq / Nome

Images from Nome courtesy of Bivers Gologergen. The first four are from 14 May and second four are from 17 May.

Shared by the Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS) for 13–21 May 2026

The images below show animations of the movement of ice predicted by the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Snapshots from the forecast show ice coverage from 0% (black) to 100% (white) and arrows show the relative speed and direction of the ice. A light boundary is drawn at 15% predicted ice cover to highlight the ice edge, but ice may be predicted to extend beyond it. Some bays, lagoons, and areas very close to shore are not covered by the model. (Image produced by the Alaska Ocean Observing System / Axiom Data Science).

These animations show the predicted movement of ice predicted by the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Snapshots from the forecast show ice coverage from 0% (black) to 100% (white) and arrows show the relative speed and direction of the ice. A light boundary is drawn at 15% predicted ice cover to highlight the ice edge, but ice may be predicted to extend beyond it. Some bays, lagoons, and areas very close to shore are not covered by the model. (Image produced by the Alaska Ocean Observing System / Axiom Data Science)