SIWO Forecast – Friday, April 10, 2026

Assessment of Current Ice Conditions Relevant to Distribution and Access of Walrus

Synopsis: High pressure across mainland Alaska and low pressure across Siberia results in warm temperatures, multiple precipitation chances, and gusty south winds at times through Saturday (4/11). The low-pressure system shifts east across the island on Sunday (4/12) bringing light north winds, intermittent snow showers, and cooler temperatures early next week. Another storm system approaches the island from the southwest on Tuesday (4/14). There is low confidence about the strength and track of this storm, but if it moves close to the island then 3 to 6 inches of snow and east winds gusting up to 45 mph are possible on Tuesday (4/14). Snow is the most likely precipitation type and accumulating snow and visibility restrictions are most likely on Thursday morning (4/9) and Friday afternoon (4/10).

Near St. Lawrence Island

A large polynya has opened in response to recent northerly winds stretching from Gambell through the southeast corner of St. Lawrence Island. Shorefast ice exists along the south side of the island from Powooiliak (Pugughileq) Camp through Silook camp to Siknik Training Camp, though there is a short area between the latter two that does not have shorefast ice. Extensive shorefast ice exists along the north side of the island. Climatological shorefast ice extends away from the coast between Savoonga and Camp Kulowiyi.

Nome

This area has not yet begun for the 2026 season..

Brevig Mission/Port Clarence Area

This area has not yet begun for the 2026 season.

Wales to Shishmaref

This area has not yet begun for the 2026 season.

Diomede

This area has not yet begun for the 2026 season.

Forecast Discussion

Ice Forecast

The meteorological pattern is changing to a more progressive one, featuring systems moving northward through the western Bering Sea. Widespread southerly winds will close the polynya and open water south of St. Lawrence Island, while pushing the pack ice northward up against the coast. Additionally, expect a new polynya to form along the north side of the island. These southerly winds will be strong enough that break-off of shorefast ice is possible, especially between Gambell and Savoonga. The area has not featured a shorefast ice extent to the north in recent years, I suspect the area will be the first to break away under these southerly winds. The overall weather pattern will be conducive for keeping the area west and north of Gambell to remain in open pack ice.

Wind Synopsis

St. Lawrence Island:

Southeasterly winds are expected through Saturday (4/11) afternoon. The strongest southeast winds gusting up to 35 knots are forecast with frontal passages Thursday (4/9) morning and Friday (4/10) afternoon. South winds decrease on Saturday (4/11) and light northerly winds of 5 to 15 knots develop by Sunday (4/12) morning then shift northeasterly Monday (4/13) afternoon. Northeast winds increase Monday night into Tuesday (4/14) as the next storm system approaches the island, northeast gusts to around 25 knots are most likely on Tuesday but if the storm moves closer to the island then northeast gusts up to 40 knots are possible.

Temperature Trend

St. Lawrence Island:

At St. Lawrence Island, high temperatures will generally be in the mid 30s through this weekend, with lows generally in the mid 20s. Somewhat cooler temperatures will arrive on Monday (4/12), with highs falling into the upper 20s or low 30s and lows falling into the low 20s or upper teens.

Daily Weather, Wind, and Temperature Updates

The National Weather Service provides twice-daily, text only updates on the weather, wind, and temperature conditions in specific geographical zones. An interactive weather map for access to other Alaskan zones can be found here: http://weather.gov/anchorage/ice

Higher resolution satellite images and wind maps (wind updated daily) can be viewed here: http://www.weather.gov/afg/SIWO_overview

The Alaska Ocean Observing System shares a variety of weather and sea ice related resources in their Bering Sea Portal at https://bering-sea.portal.aoos.org/.

NWS Sea Ice Forecast Maps

Marine forecast for the West Coast and Arctic Coast

Remote Sensing Images

Observations & Comments

Observations of Local Conditions

Observations from Sivuqaq / Gambell

Thursday, 9 April 2026 – Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.

1:05 p.m. We have 32° S 25 mph light rain. Got in around 9:30 p.m. yesterday, see whales far, maybe we get closer next time, walrus and bearded seals in water, to cold maybe. Congrats to Savoonga whalers for catch a whale.

9:04 p.m. 33° S 25 mph, some shore ice coming loose. Little bit raining.

Sea ice and weather conditions near Gambell, AK. Images courtesy of Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.

Observations from Sivungaq / Savoonga

Observation from Savoonga coming soon

Observations from Kingigin / Wales

Observations from Kigiktaq / Shishmaref

Shared by the Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS) for 8 – 16 April 2026

The images below show animations of the movement of ice predicted by the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Snapshots from the forecast show ice coverage from 0% (black) to 100% (white) and arrows show the relative speed and direction of the ice. A light boundary is drawn at 15% predicted ice cover to highlight the ice edge, but ice may be predicted to extend beyond it. Some bays, lagoons, and areas very close to shore are not covered by the model. (Image produced by the Alaska Ocean Observing System / Axiom Data Science).

These animations show the predicted movement of ice predicted by the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Snapshots from the forecast show ice coverage from 0% (black) to 100% (white) and arrows show the relative speed and direction of the ice. A light boundary is drawn at 15% predicted ice cover to highlight the ice edge, but ice may be predicted to extend beyond it. Some bays, lagoons, and areas very close to shore are not covered by the model. (Image produced by the Alaska Ocean Observing System / Axiom Data Science)